Len Pen Still Ahead in The First Round Polls
Opinion polls for the first round of voting the French elections continue to favour far-right candidate Marine Le Pen for victory though En Marche! Candidate Emmanuel Macron now trails by only one point according to polling by PresiTrack OpinionWay / ORPI for Les Echos & Radio Classique.
Le Pen currently holds 25% of the polling while Macron tracks with 24%, Francois Fillon behind at 21% and finally Benoit Hamon, the socialist candidate, coming in last with 16%. Support for Fillon, though diminished somewhat, remains intact despite recent a very public scandal recently regarding him paying his wife for “fake work.” Speaking this week, Fillon declared that he would remain in the Presidential campaign and that reports regarding the alleged scandal were simply “fake assassination” aimed at removing the center-right candidate.
Fillon Reaffirms Candidacy Despite Scandal
On Wednesday, Fillon was immersed in further controversy after failing to turn up for a French agricultural show in Paris. Although he attended the event, later on, having missed the start, his lateness fuelled rumours that he was preparing to step down. Engagement in this event is an important pivot in this election race as rural voters are increasingly becoming a key battleground in the Presidential race.
The crisis in French farming along with contracting public services is driving some voters towards the Far right. The effects of globalization have been negative for some French regions, and a growing number of voters are attracted by the Far right’s promise of protectionism and closed borders.
On Wednesday, Fillon was immersed in further controversy after failing to turn up for a French agricultural show in Paris. Although he attended the event, later on, having missed the start, his lateness fuelled rumours that he was preparing to step down. Engagement in this event is an important pivot in this election race as rural voters are increasingly becoming a key battleground in the Presidential race.
The crisis in French farming along with contracting public services is driving some voters towards the Far right. The effects of globalization have been negative for some French regions, and a growing number of voters are attracted by the Far right’s promise of protectionism and closed borders.
Despite Investor Fears, French Exit from The Euro
The main fear that is driving uncertainty ahead of the election is that a Le Pen win will see France exit the Euro. However, the chances of this happening are a lot lower than a lot of mainstream media would suggest. Firstly, the only way for France to abandon the Euro is to leave the European Union, however, the French constitution declares that France is a part of the EU and so to hold a referendum on EU exit would be unconstitutional.
In order to affect a constitutional change, Le Pen would need a super-majority in parliament or a referendum on constitutional change. The likelihood of Le Pen gaining the Presidency is low enough, but the chances of her gaining the presidency with a far-right majority in Parliament are even lower.
Current Treaties Would Need Amendment, Which Is Unlikely To Be Achieved
Read More:Cambodia: City of Sin where Child Sex Trade Thrives The current treaties only provide the option to withdraw from the EU as a whole and not to separate out the monetary union aspect. Any withdrawal agreement must be negotiated with the EU Council with the consent of the European Parliament. As the membership of the Euro is indissolubly linked to EU membership, leaving the EU would automatically mean leaving the Euro.
An alternative to this is a treaty amendment which would either introduce a withdrawal clause from the Euro area or change the terms of France’s EU membership. However, this would require approval from all EU member states and so again, is very unlikely.
Potential Outcomes
Read More:Huge whale measuring at least 9 metres long washes up on Devon beach Current polling and betting market odds suggest that Le Pen has a roughly 30% chance of gaining the Presidency, however, based on the aforementioned reasons this is probably too high an estimate regardless of previous surprises with Brexit and Trump.
If Le Pen loses in the second round which is the expected scenario, then this is likely to lead to a modest rally in European equities and a minor. Rally in EUR along with spread tightening in credit markets. If Le Pen should unexpectedly win then European equities are likely to fall sharply as will EUR.
The main fear that is driving uncertainty ahead of the election is that a Le Pen win will see France exit the Euro. However, the chances of this happening are a lot lower than a lot of mainstream media would suggest. Firstly, the only way for France to abandon the Euro is to leave the European Union, however, the French constitution declares that France is a part of the EU and so to hold a referendum on EU exit would be unconstitutional.
In order to affect a constitutional change, Le Pen would need a super-majority in parliament or a referendum on constitutional change. The likelihood of Le Pen gaining the Presidency is low enough, but the chances of her gaining the presidency with a far-right majority in Parliament are even lower.
Current Treaties Would Need Amendment, Which Is Unlikely To Be Achieved
Read More:Cambodia: City of Sin where Child Sex Trade Thrives The current treaties only provide the option to withdraw from the EU as a whole and not to separate out the monetary union aspect. Any withdrawal agreement must be negotiated with the EU Council with the consent of the European Parliament. As the membership of the Euro is indissolubly linked to EU membership, leaving the EU would automatically mean leaving the Euro.
An alternative to this is a treaty amendment which would either introduce a withdrawal clause from the Euro area or change the terms of France’s EU membership. However, this would require approval from all EU member states and so again, is very unlikely.
Potential Outcomes
Read More:Huge whale measuring at least 9 metres long washes up on Devon beach Current polling and betting market odds suggest that Le Pen has a roughly 30% chance of gaining the Presidency, however, based on the aforementioned reasons this is probably too high an estimate regardless of previous surprises with Brexit and Trump.
If Le Pen loses in the second round which is the expected scenario, then this is likely to lead to a modest rally in European equities and a minor. Rally in EUR along with spread tightening in credit markets. If Le Pen should unexpectedly win then European equities are likely to fall sharply as will EUR.
source:https://www.orbex.com/blog/2017/03/french-elections-update-le-pen-win-probability-overblown/
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